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I’m a geek. I’ve tinkered with binary since I was knee high to a grasshopper. So why do I think Linux will never become part of society like Windows?

Well - it’s not simple. It never has been. I even bought a copy of Mandrake Linux a few years ago, manuals and all. This was destined to be the next big thing…It’s what all the geeks are using, all the uni professor love it. So it must be good. Hmm. So why is it still lagging behind?

1). It leads with the command line.

Windows - if you desire never exposes you to DOS. Maybe wayyy back in Win3.1 it was useful, but they slowly started to phase it out, until now its hidden almost completely from sight. Only the true geeks know what to do, and what commands to issue in there. It was GUI all the way, Linux on the other hand when I encountered it first, wanted me to learn shell commands before I got near the GUI. Thats bad news for beginners. Things have changed now, but i’m still tasting those “su root” commands, like stale pee. Yuk.

2). Skilled users are scarce.

This is a bit chicken and egg, but if there are no skilled users, then you can’t pass the skills on to other people, unless you make a conscious effort to learn the OS on your own, through books, and that makes you a geek. See point 3.

3). You say Linux I say geek.

It’s lacking the cool factor. Mac OS is cool, its shiny and yummy and new and all the kids want one. (see point 4 about how important adoption is). Mac is a designers wet dream. Linux on the other hands just shouts geek. Which is not so cool. Linux needs a manufacturer such as Dell or someone to take it to the next level, from the looks point of view (on the exterior) to give it that Phrooar factor.

4). Linux hasn’t made the secondary school grade.

You say Linux I say geek. Perhaps in the business world this isn’t enough to put people off, but when it gets down to grass roots users - today’s kids it’s nowhere to be seen. Kids today are totally oblivious to it at the secondary school stage, and that’s where the problem mainly lies. Lack of skills in kids using it means people are learning Linux when they are twenty+. That’s bad news for any major corporation who want to deploy it. It means a higher salary for the people who do know their way around Linux, because they are few and far between. Increased wage costs in supporting it, is a big factor in adoption rates.

5) Show me the entertainment factor.

Microsoft over the past few years have been brilliant at marketing their products as entertainment. Not only does Windows do office tasks its also fun. (Jez - i sound like a Microsoft Advert, paint me red and call me Bill!). Linux’s USP is primarily that its free. When someone says games - everyone says - Oh you need to emulate those. I dont want a crappy emulator to slow my favourite game to a crawl. I want speed and I want it now. VMWare has come on leaps and bounds but its a bit of a workaround. When the major game developers take Linux seriously and release Linux versions of everything they do, then it will gain kudos from the gaming public. When Linux produces an Entertainment version which performs more solidly than Windows Media Centre, and gets it onto Sony devices, people will notice.

6). The learning curve.

There’s something that everyone knows about Windows, it can be picked up (in my opinion) quicker than Linux. Even for the basic tasks. Linux takes longer to master than Windows does, there’s so much more too it. All of this recompiling kernel malarchy to fix bugs - who wants to do that? Not the average user..and yes I know bug fixes are automatic in the majority. But its the sheer scale of the system commands that scares people.

7). Linux flavours are a strength and a weakness.

So which one do I go for. I’m a firm believer in the fact that the more flavours of something that come out, the more choice you have, the more choice you have the more unsure you are about what it is you want or need. The Xbox 360 business model is a prime example of how not to do it - people are unsure as to what you get with the Arcade, versus the Premium verses the Standard model. The same is true with Linux flavours - it has just confused people - and as such this, amongst other factors has lead to it losing marketshare. The age old adage of K.I.S.S. (keep it simple stupid) is so true for products.

8). Microsoft has too much of a lead

I’m sorry, but the Windows desktop is in 8 out of ten homes with a personal computer. Interoperability between O.S’s is never going to exist fully, so this means that Linux just doesn’t stand a chance to catch up. I’d like it to, believe me. I think it would promote open source software no end, but I just dont think its going to happen.

9). Do you get what you pay for?

There’s something about getting something for free that devalues it in the consumers mind. They think “Why is it free - if this was any good someone would be making money out of it”. A sad reflection of cynical society unfortunately.

It remains to be seen, but my guess is that Microsoft will continue to run a one horse race when it comes to choosing and operating system.